Uncouth Reflections

Blowhard, Esq. writes:

Dear Sir Barken Hyena,

For me, The Black Swan was a primer on skeptical empiricism. It gives the reader the intellectual tools to question and doubt experts. As you said, technocratic solutions have wreaked incredible havoc over the years from the economy, to nutrition and health, to my profession, the law. One very helpful way of looking at the world is that those in power are primarily concerned with amassing and maintaining power irrespective of any supposed good intentions, and one of their primary methods for doing so (at least in the West) is donning the mantle of The Expert. “I’ve studied this problem, I have many advanced degrees, all my friends over here have advanced degrees, and you would do best to listen to us.” I mean, fuck those guys, right?

So any book that reveals these charlatans for what they are gets my ringing endorsement. That is, the limits of our knowledge, the ways in which human beings fool themselves into a false confidence, cannot be emphasized enough. Here are a few of the philosophical/psychological concepts I found the most interesting and helpful:

1. Problem of Induction: the problem of predicting the future from the past, of drawing general conclusions from specific information. Taleb asks you to imagine your a turkey. You are fed every day for 1,000 days. If were to ask you to predict what happens on Day 1,001, you would have 1,000 datapoints telling us there is nothing to worry about, you’ll be fed. But, oh wait, tomorrow is the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Thus, an excess of data can give one a false sense of security and confidence. We must constantly remind ourselves that the future is fundamentally unknowable.
2. Confirmation Bias: We all have a psychological tendency to seek out and remember evidence that confirms out theories and beliefs, while ignoring any contrary evidence. We are not the rational, objective, dispassionate analysts we imagine ourselves to be. Virtually all political talk shows are a gold mines of confirmation bias in action.
3. Narrative Fallacy: We have a strong tendency to reduce the complexity of the world into simple stories. Our minds abhor chaos and must fashion causes for everything. Tyler Cowen, who was critical of The Black Swan and has feuded with Taleb, nonetheless has a great TED lecture on this concept. (The logical extension of this idea is that the entire field of history is thrown into doubt.)
4. The Problem of Silent Evidence: Best illustrated by Bastiat’s essay, “What is Seen and What is Not Seen.”
5. Ludic Fallacy: Life does not conform to mathematical models. There may be known unknowns for which we can compute probabilities, but there are also unknown unknowns that by their very nature cannot be accounted for and thus have disproportionate impact. The Ludic Fallacy is at the root of Taleb’s constant and hilarious mocking of economists throughout the book.

All of these concepts, as well as a few others, add up to a worldview that is highly suspicious of top-down, technocratic, trust-me-I’m-an-expert thinking. I completely agree with you that the danger of this type of thinking cannot be overestimated. I’m familiar with the technocratic perspective in finance and health, but I’m curious to hear you talk about it with respect to the arts. Also, what do you think about Taleb’s style? I’m sure many find his arrogance off-putting, but I think it’s a hoot. I laughed out loud more than a few times while reading. And should I be embarrassed to admit I skimmed a few sections? Once he started going on about the Great Intellectual Fraud of the Bell Curve, I kinda tuned out…

Anyway, looking forward to hearing more about your reaction. In my next response, I’ll also pick out a few choice quotes.